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Get out your anti-anxiety meds — Bake Off is back. The Great British Baking Show, also known as The Great British Bake Off, also known as Bake Off, is the most stressful show on television, even if it is packaged in a twee, fondant bow. Each year the contestants are pushed to the limit of their baking capabilities, and each year audiences around the world watch in horror as contestants somehow forget to turn on their ovens. The upcoming 12th season of the show premieres on U.S. Netflix on September 27. But before it does, we are making snap decisions on who will do well this season — based solely on photos and the descriptions provided by the Netflix PR machine. Who will crack under the pressure? Who will get a handshake? Who will ultimately win out? It’s all decided, zero percent based on baking talent, below.
Photo: Mark Bourdillon/Netflix
Someone has to be first off, so we’re predicting Andy. It can be hard for non-STEM straight men to get a footing on modern Bake Off, with its love of fiddly little details. Plus, he is one of five separate contestants who, when asked about their favorite snack, say popcorn. He is the only one, however, who only says “popcorn” and gives no further description.
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Often, one of the “youths” on the show surprises us, but we’re not putting our money on Dylan as the one to do it this season. Dylan is only 20, and his flavor influences sound fascinating, with Japanese and French baking both mentioned in his bio. One phrase trips us up, however — “Dylan loves experimenting with sweet and spice in his baking.” Paul and Prue do not have what we would call “expansive” palates for spice, and a young guy “experimenting” is a bit worrisome. Sorry, buddy.
Photo: Mark Bourdillon/Netflix
We don’t have a lot to go on here, but what we do know is that, in the group shot, it is quite clear that Nelly is wearing Ugg boots. Serious bakers on this show wear sneakers, so they have the proper arch support while on their feet all day. Unfortunately, there’s no coming back from that.
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An … American? (Gasp!) Yes, it’s true. Jeff is American-born (originally from the Bronx) but moved to the U.K. in 1979. That means he’s been in the U.K. for longer than many of the other bakers have been alive, but still, it does seem like Paul and Prue would resent an American baker making hot cross buns.
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Hazel is a star. Ranking her this high when she projects a kind of “devil may care” attitude in all photos might honestly be wishful thinking, but our emotions are getting the best of us. She’s a 71-year-old former nail technician, and her bio tells us that “Her granddaughter’s 7th-birthday cake was a carousel with 500 edible diamonds that took Hazel two weeks to make!” STAR! STAR! STAR!
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Christiaan is listed as a “menswear designer,” which is, in many ways, a good sign. It means he’ll be fussy! Still, the best Bake Off contestants are usually the ones where baking is their only creative outlet and it has boiled over into being the primary thing they care about in the world (see: Nadiya). We can’t be sure that he has the passion.
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John looks like a very pleasant guy. It’s a good-to-great sign that his favorite thing to bake is a “classic lemon tart” and that he runs scheduling in his job at the NHS — stressful! But we still think he might crack. Just look at his hair. Do you think that a man with that bleach job won’t break under the stare of Paul Hollywood for weeks on end? Be serious.
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We love Georgie. She looks like exactly the kind of mum (not “mom”) who’s house you want to go to after school, because you know she has some delicacy at the ready in the fridge. She’s also a pediatric nurse, which means she has experience under pressure. Overall, we think Georgie will be a contender, but she just can’t quite crack our top-four spots.
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Here’s a big swing for you — we think this 19-year-old is going almost all the way. Sometimes youth can be a boon on this show, especially when you don’t know enough to be nervous, and Sumayah’s bio flouts that she once made a three-foot-tall macaron tower with 240 macarons for her aunt’s wedding. Talk about a high-pressure situation? That’s bonkers. This girl knows nothing about curbing ambition. Excited for her.
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Mike knows food. A fourth-generation farmer, he was apparently shortlisted for Young Farmer of the Year at the 2024 National Arable and Grassland Awards. Very impressive! His bio states he likes “big, hearty bakes,” which is going to be great for Bread Week, we’d assume. We would be worried that he can’t measure up in precision, but he’s also “an advocate for the LGBTQ+ community within farming.” He’ll be fine.
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Gill seems to have it all — she apparently “can’t remember a time when she didn’t bake,” loves data, and makes traditional bakes with modern twists. All great things on this show. In both her headshot and the group shot she seems excited yet solid. The only reason we’re not choosing her as the winner is that we worry that her creativity won’t blow the judges away in the finale.
Photo: Mark Bourdillon/Netflix
We’re all in on Illiyin. Her influences seem to come from an infinite amount of places — her bio references Middle Eastern ingredients in desserts, Caribbean flavors in savory bakes, a youth in Norfolk, and a Spanish husband. So she’ll be able to surprise. She’s also a “birthing trauma specialist midwife,” so we cannot imagine pressure getting to her. And her smile is simply infectious and we have to imagine she’ll charm the judges. Illiyin for the win!
