Joker 2 Might Pull An Aquaman 2 At The Box Office

Even when superhero cinema was at its absolute peak in 2018 and 2019, it was downright shocking when Todd Phillips’ “Joker” made more than $1 billion at the global box office. It was the highest-grossing R-rated movie ever up to that point and remained so until “Deadpool & Wolverine” stole the record earlier this year. While the pandemic and last year’s Hollywood strikes got in the way, Joaquin Phoenix is finally back as the famed DC Comics villain in “Joker: Folie a Deux.” This time, Lady Gaga is on board to add more star power as Harley Quinn. It’s too early to say anything overly definitive but it’s all but assured that the sequel won’t fly as high as its predecessor. So the question becomes, how steep will the drop-off be?

Warner Bros. and DC’s “Joker 2” is looking at an opening weekend north of $70 million, per early tracking numbers via The Hollywood Reporter. That said, early forecasts had suggested an opening closer to $100 million and, while those may have been overly bullish, the tracking has come down in recent weeks. Box Office Theory has the film opening as low as $64 million and as high as $83 million. That’s pretty much in line with THR’s numbers. Even on the high end, it’s going to fall short of the $96.2 million domestic opening posted by “Joker” five years ago.

“Joker” finished with $335.4 million domestically and a massive $743.3 million internationally in its original run. The key there was long legs, with the film holding very well week-to-week. If the sequel opens lighter and plays more like a traditional superhero blockbuster, falling off more sharply in the coming weeks, this could be at risk of suffering a similar fate to last year’s “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom.”

2018’s “Aquaman” became the biggest DC movie in history taking in $1.15 billion worldwide. However, “The Lost Kingdom,” released five years later, opened to just over $27 million domestically, en route to a $434.3 million global finish. Or, just a small fraction of what the original made.

“Joker: Folie a Deux” centers once again on Arthur Fleck (Phoenix), who is being held at Arkham awaiting trial for his crimes as Joker. While struggling with his dual identity, Arthur stumbles upon true love. Oh, and did we mention that it’s a musical? That might be off-putting to certain viewers. The film also stars Oscar nominees Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) and Catherine Keener (“Get Out”), alongside Zazie Beetz, who reprises her role from the first film.

“Aquaman 2” making less than 40% of what its predecessor made is a worst-case scenario. The numbers before us don’t suggest that “Joker 2” will fall off quite as badly. That said, if it opens closer to $60 million and falls hard in weekend two, we could easily be looking at a movie that finishes closer to $500 million worldwide. That might still be fine enough but, keep in mind, Phillips’ lavish, musical sequel carries a reported $200 million budget, compared to the original’s very reasonable $60 million.

So, while the first “Joker” was a tremendously profitable film for Warner Bros., the follow-up is at risk of merely breaking even in its theatrical run, if things go south. Let’s not forget that last year’s “Shazam! Fury of the Gods,” “The Flash,” and “Blue Beetle” all also flopped in theaters. DC is in the middle of a rough run. I’m not standing here predicting disaster, but I am pointing out that presuming this to be a smash hit might be a bit overeager.

For what it’s worth, “Folie a Deux” currently carries a 63% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, which is more or less in line with the 69% the original “Joker” holds. /Film’s Bill Bria called the sequel a “compelling musical deconstruction” in his 8 out of 10 review. To what degree the musical nature of the film puts off certain viewers remains to be seen. In any event, this could be a real test for DC as it gets ready for a reboot next year with James Gunn’s “Superman.”

“Joker: Folie a Deux” hits theaters on October 4, 2024.