The Emmys these last few years have been a model of all or almost nothing at all.
To follow the last ceremony, held in January after the writers’ and actors’ strikes postponed the event for a few months, you really needed to be aware of only three shows — “Succession,” “The Bear” and “Beef.” They won Emmys for series, writing and directing in their respective categories, and their casts took eight of the 12 acting awards. While the winners were (mostly) worthy, it made for an evening almost entirely devoid of drama, unless you were worried that Matty Matheson might pass out onstage during that long kiss Ebon Moss-Bachrach planted on him after “The Bear” won comedy series.
This year, if you’ve watched “Shōgun,” “Baby Reindeer” and “The Bear,” you’re pretty much set. If you haven’t, well, our old friend from USC, Caleb Williams, will be leading the Bears against the Texans on “Sunday Night Football.” I’m sure I won’t be the only one with a couple of screens active that evening.
Here are my final predictions for the 76th Primetime Emmys on Sept. 15, airing at 5 p.m. Pacific on ABC. (Bonus pick: Texans by 7.)
COMEDY SERIES
“Abbott Elementary”
“The Bear”
“Curb Your Enthusiasm”
“Hacks”
“Only Murders in the Building”
“Palm Royale”
“Reservation Dogs”
“What We Do in the Shadows”
Winner: “The Bear”
“The Bear” drops its new seasons in June, putting it in a weird place for the Emmys. Its third season, which premiered a couple months ago to some complaints that the show was inconsistent and a little light on plot, will be eligible next year, as the Emmy eligibility cutoff date is May 31. What will be celebrated at this year’s ceremony is the faultless second season — the one with the classic episodes “Fishes” (the Jamie Lee Curtis Christmas hour) and “Forks” (the culmination of the Richie redemption arc). If all that feels like a chaos menu, take it up with the Television Academy.
Hannah Einbinder, left, and Jean Smart star in “Hacks.” Could they win Emmys for their roles?
(Jake Giles Netter / Max)
COMEDY ACTRESS
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”
Selena Gomez, “Only Murders in the Building”
Maya Rudolph, “Loot”
Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Kristen Wiig, “Palm Royale”
Winner: Smart
Smart won this Emmy for the first two seasons of “Hacks.” Then, because of the strikes and a heart procedure Smart had in February 2023, the show’s third season was delayed a year. But it was worth the wait, as “Hacks” really burrowed into the complicated relationship between Deborah Vance, Smart’s showbiz legend, and Ava, Deborah’s progressive young writing partner, played by Hannah Einbinder. Edebiri won an Emmy for supporting actress last time out and could now win lead. She’s great! But “Hacks” gave Smart more to do and a better character arc. And voters clearly adore her.
COMEDY ACTOR
Matt Berry, “What We Do in the Shadows”
Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm”
Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building”
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, “Reservation Dogs”
Winner: White
This category boasts three comedy legends (Short, Martin and David), two first-time nominees (Berry for the fifth season of “What We Do in the Shadows” and Woon-A-Tai for the third and final year of “Reservation Dogs”) and White, who won at the delayed 2023 ceremony and will prevail again for the season that ended with Carmy melting down while locked inside the restaurant’s walk-in fridge. “No amount of good is worth how terrible this feels,” he says, a vibe that won’t ever be used as evidence that “The Bear” belongs in the comedy categories.
COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Carol Burnett, “Palm Royale”
Liza Colón-Zayas, “The Bear”
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”
Meryl Streep, “Only Murders in the Building”
Winner: Einbinder
OK, maybe you need to watch “Hacks” too for this year’s Emmys. With the third season’s focus on the shifting power dynamics between Ava and Deborah, “Hacks” gave Einbinder room to play a character growing as confident and ambitious as her mentor. Like Smart, Einbinder has the meatiest role among the nominees. This is her third nomination, and it’s time for her to join her co-star as an Emmy winner. (And in case you were wondering: Yes, Streep has an Emmy. Three, in fact.)
COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
Lionel Boyce, “The Bear”
Paul W. Downs, “Hacks”
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”
Paul Rudd, “Only Murders in the Building”
Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary”
Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live”
Winner: Moss-Bachrach
Moss-Bachrach won for “The Bear’s” first season, where he spent most of his time screaming at people, although you didn’t have to look all that closely to see Richie’s pain and vulnerability. Season 2 saw Richie wearing suits, acting like a grown-up and celebrating his personal growth by singing along to Taylor Swift. When everything clicked for Richie in the series’ best episode, “Forks,” you wanted to cry for joy. I can’t wait to see whom he kisses onstage this year.
Richard Gadd and Jessica Gunn star in “Baby Reindeer.” Each has a strong shot in their Emmy race.
(Ed Miller / Netflix )
LIMITED SERIES
“Baby Reindeer”
“Fargo”
“Lessons in Chemistry”
“Ripley”
“True Detective: Night Country”
Winner: “Baby Reindeer”
All five of the nominees earned at least 10 nominations each with “True Detective” leading the field with 19. But “Baby Reindeer” became a viewing phenomenon when it landed on Netflix in April. There has been controversy, with the woman who identified herself as the inspiration for the show’s stalker character suing the streamer, accusing Netflix of defamation. But I don’t see that derailing the show’s chances, although the gorgeous, meticulously crafted “Ripley” could be a spoiler.
Jodie Foster stars in “True Detective: Night Country.”
(Michele K. Short / HBO)
LIMITED SERIES ACTRESS
Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country”
Brie Larson, “Lessons in Chemistry”
Juno Temple, “Fargo”
Sofía Vergara, “Griselda”
Naomi Watts, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”
Winner: Foster
All the goodwill Jodie Foster earned while campaigning for her Oscar-nominated turn in “Nyad” should carry over here, particularly for a role that saw her returning to eerie, atmospheric crime-solving horror. Foster has picked up many honors over the years — two Oscars, four Golden Globes, a SAG Award, plus career tributes — but never an Emmy. In fact, this is her first nomination. Expect a big ovation when she wins.
LIMITED SERIES ACTOR
Matt Bomer, “Fellow Travelers”
Richard Gadd, “Baby Reindeer”
Jon Hamm, “Fargo”
Tom Hollander, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”
Andrew Scott, “Ripley”
Winner: Gadd
Gadd earned three nominations for “Baby Reindeer” — lead actor, writer and executive producer. Unlike the Oscars, where members choose the winners in all categories, the Emmys are decided by peer groups within each field. Actors vote for actors, writers vote for writing and everyone decides series. So it’s not like a member of the actors branch looks at Gadd on the ballot and thinks, “OK, I can check off his name for writing ‘Baby Reindeer’ and vote for the series, but I’m going to go with Andrew Scott for ‘Ripley.’”
Personally, I’d go with Scott for his masterful turn as the antihero in “Ripley” in a heartbeat. And it wouldn’t be surprising if Emmy voters finally gave this great actor his due. But I’m leaning toward Gadd for his raw portrait of a flawed man consumed by shame. He’ll get bonus points from his peers for writing himself such a powerful part.
LIMITED SERIES SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Dakota Fanning, “Ripley”
Lily Gladstone, “Under the Bridge”
Jessica Gunning, “Baby Reindeer”
Aja Naomi King, “Lessons in Chemistry”
Diane Lane, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”
Nava Mau, “Baby Reindeer”
Kali Reis, “True Detective: Night Country”
Winner: Gunning
I’d love to see Reis holding an Emmy alongside her “True Detective” co-star Foster after the ceremony. The former world champion boxer brought such a raw intensity and presence to her portrayal of Iñupiat state trooper Evangeline Navarro. But I suspect Gunning will be hard to beat here for the way she invested such empathy into the stalker on “Baby Reindeer.” The series is unimaginable without her.
LIMITED SERIES SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jonathan Bailey, “Fellow Travelers”
Robert Downey Jr., “The Sympathizer”
Tom Goodman-Hill, “Baby Reindeer”
John Hawkes, “True Detective: North Country”
Lamorne Morris, “Fargo”
Lewis Pullman, “Lessons in Chemistry”
Treat Williams, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”
Winner: Bailey
There was a time when Downey winning for his showy, multi-role performance in “The Sympathizer” seemed a sure thing. But his nomination was the series’ only recognition, which doesn’t indicate much enthusiasm for “The Sympathizer.” It’s a tough category to predict, but I’ll go with Bailey, the English actor who has been wowing us for more than a decade in shows like “Broadchurch,” “Crashing” and “Bridgerton.” It looks like he’s focusing on film now, with major roles in “Wicked” and the next “Jurassic Park” movie, so Emmy voters should send him out in style for his beautiful work in the heartfelt “Fellow Travelers.”
Anna Sawai and Hiroyuki Sanada star in “Shogun.”
(Katie Yu / FX)
DRAMA SERIES
“The Crown”
“Fallout”
“The Gilded Age”
“The Morning Show”
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith”
“Shōgun”
“Slow Horses”
“3 Body Problem”
Winner: “Shōgun”
The new season of “Slow Horses” just landed with all the attendant acclaim you’d expect for this celebrated spy series, which finally broke through with Emmy voters this year for its third season. It’s one of two shows nominated that actually deserves awards recognition, the other, of course, being “Shōgun.” With a whopping 25 nominations, “Shōgun” is the overwhelming favorite to sweep through most of the drama categories, including the two lead acting awards, directing and probably writing — though it wouldn’t be a shock if “Slow Horses” prevails in that latter category.
DRAMA ACTRESS
Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show”
Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age”
Maya Erskine, “Mr. & Mrs. Smith”
Anna Sawai, “Shōgun”
Imelda Staunton, “The Crown”
Reese Witherspoon, “The Morning Show”
Winner: Sawai
Before the nominations, it felt like the only person who could take this Emmy over Sawai was Emma Stone, who won her second Oscar earlier this year for “Poor Things” and might have been even better in “The Curse,” in which she and Nathan Fielder played hosts of a home renovation show. But then Stone wasn’t nominated. And neither was “The Curse” — for anything. That shutout feels more cringe-inducing than anything this weird, disquieting show offered. So that leaves Sawai, who probably would have won easily anyway. (She’s also great in “Pachinko,” which just returned for its second season.)
DRAMA ACTOR
Donald Glover, “Mr. & Mrs. Smith”
Walton Goggins, “Fallout”
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun”
Dominic West, “The Crown”
Idris Elba, “Hijack”
Winner: Sanada
How about an early prediction for the 2025 Emmys: Oldman wins this award for the fourth season of “Slow Horses.” In a career studded with brilliant work, his portrayal of the foul-mouthed, flatulent, booze-soaked veteran secret agent Jackson Lamb might be the best thing he has ever done. But Sanada carried “Shōgun” playing the pragmatic, charismatic tactician always two steps ahead of his enemies (and allies).
DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Christine Baranski, “The Gilded Age”
Nicole Beharie, “The Morning Show”
Elizabeth Debicki, “The Crown”
Greta Lee, “The Morning Show”
Lesley Manville, “The Crown”
Karen Pittman, “The Morning Show”
Holland Taylor, “The Morning Show”
Winner: Debicki
Debicki stands as the overwhelming favorite for her sensitive portrayal of a melancholy Diana on “The Crown,” but castmate Manville might be more deserving. You know this if you saw Manville’s showcase episode, “Ritz,” the gorgeous, devastating highlight of “The Crown’s” final season. It’s Manville’s first Emmy nomination. Debicki was recognized last year, ultimately losing to Jennifer Coolidge for “The White Lotus.” Voters likely will elevate her this year.
DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tadanobu Asano, “Shōgun”
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
Mark Duplass, “The Morning Show”
Jon Hamm, “The Morning Show”
Takehiro Hira, “Shōgun”
Jack Lowden, “Slow Horses”
Jonathan Pryce, “The Crown”
Winner: Crudup
The soapy “The Morning Show” would have been a better fit for the Daytime Emmys, but in a soft year it pulled in 16 nominations, including nine for acting. But even the people who watch it to complain about how bad it is have nothing but love for Crudup and his charming, chaotic Cory Ellison. For many, Crudup, who won an Emmy for the series’ first season, is the only reason they still tune in. The man can utter a line like “Alex Levy is Lazarus… which I guess makes me Jesus” and somehow keep a straight face.
